Trumpian consequences- trip, stumble and fall

Yesterday, President Trump announced his most sweeping set of economic tariffs. He, alone amongst all considered opinion, believes the tariffs will generate increased wealth for Americans.

Instantly, the value of the world’s stock markets fell. Dramatically.

In Australia, the Prime Minister after a campaign speech tripped and stumbled walking off his platform and appeared to fall.

For Australia’s conservative Opposition yesterday’s tariff announcements was the moment when their chances of winning the May 3 election not only fell, but tumbled. Precipitously. Fatally.

Margaret Thatcher’s electoral success was aided by having the “best kind of enemies.” Her governments could rally against the Argentinian junta, a radical Opposition Leader in Michael Foot and a dangerous union leader in Arthur Scargill.

Anthony Albanese appears to have been similarly blessed. In the 2022 election, Albanese could portray himself as the “compassionate everyday Aussie” against Scott Morrison who was characterised as an overly conservative, weirdly religious, slightly misogynist “bulldozer”.

In this year’s election Albanese can now, thanks to Trump’s intervention, portray himself as the proud nationalist Prime Minister standing up for the underdog Australia against “bad friend” America. Drawing on the campaigning of Canada’s Prime Minister,  Albanese will waste no opportunity to present himself as the defender of the Australian ethos of fairness. Incumbency is a gift that keeps giving.

Again, political history repeats. In 1991 Canada’s Prime Minister, Brian Mulroney, introduced a Goods and Services Tax. Its unpopularity saw Mulroney’s government routed in the 1993 Canadian election. Like Trump’s tariff announcement, Canada’s political shockwaves spread to Australia. Paul Keating’s Labor government used the Canadian experience to campaign against the proposed introduction of a similar tax by the Opposition during Australia’s 1993 election. The result was an improbable fifth successive election victory for Labor.

Albanese’s government, which had already begun to depict Opposition Leader, Peter Dutton, as a pale imitation of Donald Trump will further accentuate that message.  It’s negative, it’s facile, but in Trump’s tariff climate of apprehension and fear, it will be effective.

Albanese will remind voters that now is not the time to express their dissatisfaction by voting for minor parties to ensure stable government. Anti-American sentiment, always a feature of the extreme Left in Australia, may bolster votes for the Greens; however, the government and not the Opposition will be the beneficiary of the flow of Green preferences.

Albanese’s political hero, Bob Hawke (Australian Prime Minister from 1983-1991), first ran for Parliament in the 1963 Federal election. During the campaign, President Kennedy was assassinated. Hawke often commented that he knew that his and his party’s chance of electoral success were dashed after the fateful day in Dallas.

When uncertainty and shock reigns, it is not the time for a change in government. With apologies to Auden, stop all th epollig, stop all the phone surveys, muffle the noise of the campaign. For thanks to Trump, nothing the Opposition can do can come to any good.